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Tambov vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2018

Tambov
Tambov
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
9/8/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Stadion Spartak (Tambov)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tambov50%
×Draw25%
Chertanovo Moscow25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambov
1.58
Chertanovo Moscow
1.03

Tambov creates 53% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 54 away

creates per match

Tambov
1.62
Chertanovo Moscow
1.20

allows per match

Tambov
0.86
Chertanovo Moscow
1.54

finishing

Tambov+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tambov or draw
75%
Tambov or Chertanovo Moscow
75%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
50%

Winning margin

Tambov wins by 2+
26%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tambov 1+ goals
79%
Tambov 2+ goals
47%
Tambov 3+ goals
21%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
64%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
28%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tambov (draw refunded)
67%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov attack 1.62 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.20 + Tambov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tambov scores more
50%
level
25%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
25%

Tambov at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tambov vs Chertanovo Moscow

Tambov and Chertanovo Moscow drew 2-2 in First League on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak (Tambov).