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Tambov vs Baltika — First League 2018

Tambov
Tambov
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Baltika
Baltika
11/4/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Stadion Spartak (Tambov)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tambov41%
×Draw27%
Baltika31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambov
1.31
Baltika
1.10

Tambov creates 19% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 108 away

creates per match

Tambov
1.62
Baltika
1.35

allows per match

Tambov
0.86
Baltika
1.00

finishing

Tambov+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tambov or draw
69%
Tambov or Baltika
73%
Draw or Baltika
59%

Winning margin

Tambov wins by 2+
19%
Baltika wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tambov 1+ goals
73%
Tambov 2+ goals
38%
Tambov 3+ goals
14%
Baltika 1+ goals
67%
Baltika 2+ goals
30%
Baltika 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tambov (draw refunded)
57%
Baltika (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.00 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov attack 1.62 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Baltika attack 1.35 + Tambov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tambov scores more
41%
level
27%
Baltika scores more
31%

Tambov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Tambov 2–0 Baltika

Tambov beat Baltika 2-0 in First League on November 4, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak (Tambov).