Tambov 3–1 Avangard Kursk: Result & Stats

Tambov

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Avangard Kursk

10/1/2018

First League · Round 14Stadion Spartak (Tambov)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tambov51%

×Draw26%

Avangard Kursk23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TambovExpected goals in this matchAvangard Kursk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.90

Tambov

1.50

Avangard Kursk

0.90

Tambov creates 67% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 32 away

1.62

creates per match

0.94

0.86

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Tambov

1.62

Avangard Kursk

0.94

allows per match

Tambov

0.86

Avangard Kursk

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tambov+0.00on par

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov ↓

Avangard Kursk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tambov or draw

77%

Tambov or Avangard Kursk

74%

Draw or Avangard Kursk

49%

Winning margin

Tambov wins by 2+

26%

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tambov 1+ goals

78%

Tambov 2+ goals

44%

Tambov 3+ goals

19%

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

59%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

23%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tambov (draw refunded)

69%

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov attack 1.62 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Avangard Kursk attack 0.94 + Tambov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tambov scores more

51%

level

26%

Avangard Kursk scores more

23%

Tambov at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff