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Tambov vs Arsenal Tula — Premier League 2018

Tambov
Tambov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
10/3/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Mordovia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tambov41%
×Draw26%
Arsenal Tula33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambov
1.38
Arsenal Tula
1.21

Tambov creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 61 away

creates per match

Tambov
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.82

allows per match

Tambov
1.59
Arsenal Tula
1.75

finishing

Tambov+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tambov or draw
67%
Tambov or Arsenal Tula
74%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
59%

Winning margin

Tambov wins by 2+
19%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tambov 1+ goals
75%
Tambov 2+ goals
40%
Tambov 3+ goals
16%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
70%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
34%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tambov (draw refunded)
55%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.75 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov attack 1.00 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Arsenal Tula attack 0.82 + Tambov defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tambov scores more
41%
level
26%
Arsenal Tula scores more
33%

Tambov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tambov vs Arsenal Tula

Tambov and Arsenal Tula drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Mordovia Arena in Saransk.