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Tambov U20 vs Ufa U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Tambov U20
Tambov U20
FT
7 – 1
Ufa U20
Ufa U20
10/25/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 14Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Tambov U2049%
×Draw22%
Ufa U2029%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambov U20
1.90
Ufa U20
1.42

Tambov U20 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 40 away

creates per match

Tambov U20
1.54
Ufa U20
0.97

allows per match

Tambov U20
1.88
Ufa U20
2.25

finishing

Tambov U20+0.00on par
Ufa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov U20 ↓

Ufa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Tambov U20 or draw
71%
Tambov U20 or Ufa U20
78%
Draw or Ufa U20
51%

Winning margin

Tambov U20 wins by 2+
27%
Ufa U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tambov U20 1+ goals
85%
Tambov U20 2+ goals
56%
Tambov U20 3+ goals
29%
Ufa U20 1+ goals
76%
Ufa U20 2+ goals
41%
Ufa U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tambov U20 (draw refunded)
63%
Ufa U20 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov U20 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

Ufa U20 away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.25 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov U20 attack 1.54 + Ufa U20 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.90

Ufa U20 attack 0.97 + Tambov U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tambov U20 scores more
49%
level
22%
Ufa U20 scores more
29%

Tambov U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tambov U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tambov U20 vs Ufa U20

Tambov U20 beat Ufa U20 7-1 in Youth Championship on October 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Tambov.