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Tambov U20 vs Spartak Moskva U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Tambov U20
Tambov U20
FT
0 – 3
Spartak Moskva U20
Spartak Moskva U20
11/21/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 10Stadion Sokol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Tambov U2032%
×Draw24%
Spartak Moskva U2044%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambov U20
1.40
Spartak Moskva U20
1.67

Spartak Moskva U20 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

Tambov U20
1.54
Spartak Moskva U20
1.45

allows per match

Tambov U20
1.88
Spartak Moskva U20
1.25

finishing

Tambov U20+0.00on par
Spartak Moskva U20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov U20 ↓

Spartak Moskva U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tambov U20 or draw
56%
Tambov U20 or Spartak Moskva U20
76%
Draw or Spartak Moskva U20
68%

Winning margin

Tambov U20 wins by 2+
15%
Spartak Moskva U20 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Tambov U20 1+ goals
75%
Tambov U20 2+ goals
41%
Tambov U20 3+ goals
17%
Spartak Moskva U20 1+ goals
81%
Spartak Moskva U20 2+ goals
50%
Spartak Moskva U20 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tambov U20 (draw refunded)
42%
Spartak Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov U20 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

Spartak Moskva U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov U20 attack 1.54 + Spartak Moskva U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

Spartak Moskva U20 attack 1.45 + Tambov U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tambov U20 scores more
32%
level
24%
Spartak Moskva U20 scores more
44%

Spartak Moskva U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Spartak Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tambov U20 vs Spartak Moskva U20

Spartak Moskva U20 beat Tambov U20 3-0 in Youth Championship on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol in Lipeck.