Tambov U20 1–3 Lokomotiv Moskva U20: Result & Stats

Tambov U20

FT

1 – 3

Lokomotiv Moskva U20

11/21/2019

Youth Championship · Round 17Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tambov U2023%

×Draw22%

Lokomotiv Moskva U2054%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tambov U20Expected goals in this matchLokomotiv Moskva U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.94

Tambov U20

1.20

Lokomotiv Moskva U20

1.94

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

1.54

creates per match

2.00

1.88

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Tambov U20

1.54

Lokomotiv Moskva U20

2.00

allows per match

Tambov U20

1.88

Lokomotiv Moskva U20

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tambov U20+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Moskva U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov U20 ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Tambov U20 or draw

46%

Tambov U20 or Lokomotiv Moskva U20

78%

Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva U20

77%

Winning margin

Tambov U20 wins by 2+

9%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Tambov U20 1+ goals

70%

Tambov U20 2+ goals

34%

Tambov U20 3+ goals

12%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 1+ goals

86%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 2+ goals

58%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Tambov U20 (draw refunded)

30%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov U20 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov U20 attack 1.54 + Lokomotiv Moskva U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.20

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 attack 2.00 + Tambov U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tambov U20 scores more

23%

level

22%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 scores more

54%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff