Tambov U20 0–1 Akademiya Konoplev U20

Tambov U20

FT

0 – 1

Akademiya Konoplev U20

4/7/2021

Youth Championship · Lower Table Round - 2Stadion STC Tambov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Tambov U2046%

×Draw22%

Akademiya Konoplev U2032%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tambov U20Expected goals in this matchAkademiya Konoplev U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.62

Tambov U20

1.96

Akademiya Konoplev U20

1.62

Tambov U20 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 76 away

1.54

creates per match

1.36

1.88

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Tambov U20

1.54

Akademiya Konoplev U20

1.36

allows per match

Tambov U20

1.88

Akademiya Konoplev U20

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tambov U20+0.00on par

Akademiya Konoplev U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov U20 ↓

Akademiya Konoplev U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Tambov U20 or draw

68%

Tambov U20 or Akademiya Konoplev U20

78%

Draw or Akademiya Konoplev U20

54%

Winning margin

Tambov U20 wins by 2+

26%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tambov U20 1+ goals

86%

Tambov U20 2+ goals

58%

Tambov U20 3+ goals

31%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 1+ goals

80%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 2+ goals

48%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Tambov U20 (draw refunded)

59%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov U20 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

Akademiya Konoplev U20 away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.37 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov U20 attack 1.54 + Akademiya Konoplev U20 defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.96

Akademiya Konoplev U20 attack 1.36 + Tambov U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tambov U20 scores more

46%

level

22%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 scores more

32%

Tambov U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tambov U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff