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Tambankulu Callies vs Young Buffaloes — Premier League 2020

Tambankulu Callies
Tambankulu Callies
FT
0 – 0
Young Buffaloes
Young Buffaloes
8/4/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Tambankulu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tambankulu Callies23%
×Draw26%
Young Buffaloes52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambankulu Callies
0.92
Young Buffaloes
1.54

Young Buffaloes creates 67% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 86 away

creates per match

Tambankulu Callies
1.05
Young Buffaloes
1.86

allows per match

Tambankulu Callies
1.21
Young Buffaloes
0.78

finishing

Tambankulu Callies+0.00on par
Young Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambankulu Callies ↓

Young Buffaloes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tambankulu Callies or draw
48%
Tambankulu Callies or Young Buffaloes
74%
Draw or Young Buffaloes
77%

Winning margin

Tambankulu Callies wins by 2+
8%
Young Buffaloes wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Tambankulu Callies 1+ goals
60%
Tambankulu Callies 2+ goals
23%
Tambankulu Callies 3+ goals
7%
Young Buffaloes 1+ goals
79%
Young Buffaloes 2+ goals
45%
Young Buffaloes 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tambankulu Callies (draw refunded)
30%
Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambankulu Callies at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 43 matches

Young Buffaloes away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambankulu Callies attack 1.05 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.92

Young Buffaloes attack 1.86 + Tambankulu Callies defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tambankulu Callies scores more
23%
level
26%
Young Buffaloes scores more
52%

Young Buffaloes at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tambankulu Callies 0–0 Young Buffaloes

Tambankulu Callies and Young Buffaloes drew 0-0 in Premier League on August 4, 2021.

The match was played at Tambankulu Stadium in Tambankulu.