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Tambankulu Callies vs Royal Leopards — Premier League 2020

Tambankulu Callies
Tambankulu Callies
FT
2 – 1
Royal Leopards
Royal Leopards
1/16/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Tambankulu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tambankulu Callies25%
×Draw26%
Royal Leopards50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambankulu Callies
1.00
Royal Leopards
1.54

Royal Leopards creates 54% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 85 away

creates per match

Tambankulu Callies
1.05
Royal Leopards
1.88

allows per match

Tambankulu Callies
1.21
Royal Leopards
0.96

finishing

Tambankulu Callies+0.00on par
Royal Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambankulu Callies ↓

Royal Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tambankulu Callies or draw
50%
Tambankulu Callies or Royal Leopards
74%
Draw or Royal Leopards
75%

Winning margin

Tambankulu Callies wins by 2+
9%
Royal Leopards wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Tambankulu Callies 1+ goals
63%
Tambankulu Callies 2+ goals
26%
Tambankulu Callies 3+ goals
8%
Royal Leopards 1+ goals
79%
Royal Leopards 2+ goals
45%
Royal Leopards 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tambankulu Callies (draw refunded)
33%
Royal Leopards (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambankulu Callies at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 43 matches

Royal Leopards away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.96 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambankulu Callies attack 1.05 + Royal Leopards defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Royal Leopards attack 1.88 + Tambankulu Callies defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tambankulu Callies scores more
25%
level
26%
Royal Leopards scores more
50%

Royal Leopards at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tambankulu Callies vs Royal Leopards

Tambankulu Callies beat Royal Leopards 2-1 in Premier League on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at Tambankulu Stadium in Tambankulu.