Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tambankulu Callies vs Rangers FC — Premier League 2020

Tambankulu Callies
Tambankulu Callies
FT
1 – 0
Rangers FC
Rangers FC
12/11/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Tambankulu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tambankulu Callies40%
×Draw28%
Rangers FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambankulu Callies
1.22
Rangers FC
1.07

Tambankulu Callies creates 14% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 56 away

creates per match

Tambankulu Callies
1.05
Rangers FC
0.93

allows per match

Tambankulu Callies
1.21
Rangers FC
1.39

finishing

Tambankulu Callies+0.00on par
Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambankulu Callies ↓

Rangers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tambankulu Callies or draw
68%
Tambankulu Callies or Rangers FC
72%
Draw or Rangers FC
60%

Winning margin

Tambankulu Callies wins by 2+
17%
Rangers FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tambankulu Callies 1+ goals
70%
Tambankulu Callies 2+ goals
34%
Tambankulu Callies 3+ goals
12%
Rangers FC 1+ goals
66%
Rangers FC 2+ goals
29%
Rangers FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tambankulu Callies (draw refunded)
55%
Rangers FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambankulu Callies at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 43 matches

Rangers FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.39 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambankulu Callies attack 1.05 + Rangers FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.22

Rangers FC attack 0.93 + Tambankulu Callies defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tambankulu Callies scores more
40%
level
28%
Rangers FC scores more
32%

Tambankulu Callies at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tambankulu Callies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tambankulu Callies vs Rangers FC

Tambankulu Callies beat Rangers FC 1-0 in Premier League on December 11, 2021.

The match was played at Tambankulu Stadium in Tambankulu.