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Tambankulu Callies vs Moneni Pirates — Premier League 2020

Tambankulu Callies
Tambankulu Callies
FT
1 – 0
Moneni Pirates
Moneni Pirates
11/13/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Tambankulu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tambankulu Callies38%
×Draw28%
Moneni Pirates34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambankulu Callies
1.20
Moneni Pirates
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 83 away

creates per match

Tambankulu Callies
1.05
Moneni Pirates
1.04

allows per match

Tambankulu Callies
1.21
Moneni Pirates
1.35

finishing

Tambankulu Callies+0.00on par
Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambankulu Callies ↓

Moneni Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tambankulu Callies or draw
66%
Tambankulu Callies or Moneni Pirates
72%
Draw or Moneni Pirates
62%

Winning margin

Tambankulu Callies wins by 2+
16%
Moneni Pirates wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tambankulu Callies 1+ goals
70%
Tambankulu Callies 2+ goals
34%
Tambankulu Callies 3+ goals
12%
Moneni Pirates 1+ goals
68%
Moneni Pirates 2+ goals
31%
Moneni Pirates 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tambankulu Callies (draw refunded)
52%
Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambankulu Callies at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 43 matches

Moneni Pirates away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambankulu Callies attack 1.05 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

Moneni Pirates attack 1.04 + Tambankulu Callies defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tambankulu Callies scores more
38%
level
28%
Moneni Pirates scores more
34%

Tambankulu Callies at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tambankulu Callies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tambankulu Callies vs Moneni Pirates

Tambankulu Callies beat Moneni Pirates 1-0 in Premier League on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Tambankulu Stadium in Tambankulu.