Tambankulu Callies 0–3 Mhlume Peacemakers

Tambankulu Callies

FT

0 – 3

Mhlume Peacemakers

4/28/2021

Premier League · Round 8Tambankulu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tambankulu Callies60%

×Draw23%

Mhlume Peacemakers17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tambankulu CalliesExpected goals in this matchMhlume Peacemakers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.87

Tambankulu Callies

1.83

Mhlume Peacemakers

0.87

Tambankulu Callies creates 110% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 15 away

1.05

creates per match

0.53

1.21

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Tambankulu Callies

1.05

Mhlume Peacemakers

0.53

allows per match

Tambankulu Callies

1.21

Mhlume Peacemakers

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tambankulu Callies+0.00on par

Mhlume Peacemakers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambankulu Callies ↓

Mhlume Peacemakers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tambankulu Callies or draw

83%

Tambankulu Callies or Mhlume Peacemakers

77%

Draw or Mhlume Peacemakers

40%

Winning margin

Tambankulu Callies wins by 2+

35%

Mhlume Peacemakers wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tambankulu Callies 1+ goals

84%

Tambankulu Callies 2+ goals

54%

Tambankulu Callies 3+ goals

28%

Mhlume Peacemakers 1+ goals

58%

Mhlume Peacemakers 2+ goals

22%

Mhlume Peacemakers 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tambankulu Callies (draw refunded)

77%

Mhlume Peacemakers (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambankulu Callies at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 43 matches

Mhlume Peacemakers away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambankulu Callies attack 1.05 + Mhlume Peacemakers defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.83

Mhlume Peacemakers attack 0.53 + Tambankulu Callies defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tambankulu Callies scores more

60%

level

23%

Mhlume Peacemakers scores more

17%

Tambankulu Callies at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tambankulu Callies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff