Tambankulu Callies 3–0 Manzini Sea Birds

Tambankulu Callies

FT

3 – 0

Manzini Sea Birds

4/23/2022

Premier League · Round 18Tambankulu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tambankulu Callies39%

×Draw27%

Manzini Sea Birds34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tambankulu CalliesExpected goals in this matchManzini Sea Birds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.17

Tambankulu Callies

1.28

Manzini Sea Birds

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 85 away

1.05

creates per match

1.14

1.21

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Tambankulu Callies

1.05

Manzini Sea Birds

1.14

allows per match

Tambankulu Callies

1.21

Manzini Sea Birds

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tambankulu Callies+0.00on par

Manzini Sea Birds+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambankulu Callies ↓

Manzini Sea Birds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tambankulu Callies or draw

66%

Tambankulu Callies or Manzini Sea Birds

73%

Draw or Manzini Sea Birds

61%

Winning margin

Tambankulu Callies wins by 2+

17%

Manzini Sea Birds wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tambankulu Callies 1+ goals

72%

Tambankulu Callies 2+ goals

37%

Tambankulu Callies 3+ goals

14%

Manzini Sea Birds 1+ goals

69%

Manzini Sea Birds 2+ goals

33%

Manzini Sea Birds 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tambankulu Callies (draw refunded)

54%

Manzini Sea Birds (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambankulu Callies at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 43 matches

Manzini Sea Birds away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambankulu Callies attack 1.05 + Manzini Sea Birds defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.28

Manzini Sea Birds attack 1.14 + Tambankulu Callies defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tambankulu Callies scores more

39%

level

27%

Manzini Sea Birds scores more

34%

Tambankulu Callies at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tambankulu Callies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff