Tamaraceite 1–1 Villa Santa Brígida: Result & Stats

Tamaraceite

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Villa Santa Brígida

12/5/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 14Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Tamaraceite53%

×Draw25%

Villa Santa Brígida22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TamaraceiteExpected goals in this matchVilla Santa Brígida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.97

Tamaraceite

1.65

Villa Santa Brígida

0.97

Tamaraceite creates 70% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 109 away

1.78

creates per match

0.96

0.99

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Tamaraceite

1.78

Villa Santa Brígida

0.96

allows per match

Tamaraceite

0.99

Villa Santa Brígida

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tamaraceite+0.00on par

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamaraceite ↓

Villa Santa Brígida →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tamaraceite or draw

78%

Tamaraceite or Villa Santa Brígida

75%

Draw or Villa Santa Brígida

47%

Winning margin

Tamaraceite wins by 2+

29%

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

Team goals

Tamaraceite 1+ goals

81%

Tamaraceite 2+ goals

49%

Tamaraceite 3+ goals

23%

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

62%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

25%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tamaraceite (draw refunded)

71%

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tamaraceite at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 83 matches

Villa Santa Brígida away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tamaraceite attack 1.78 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.65

Villa Santa Brígida attack 0.96 + Tamaraceite defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tamaraceite scores more

53%

level

25%

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

22%

Tamaraceite at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tamaraceite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff