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Tamaraceite vs Unión Sur Yaiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tamaraceite
Tamaraceite
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Unión Sur Yaiza
Unión Sur Yaiza
3/11/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 24Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Tamaraceite52%
×Draw26%
Unión Sur Yaiza23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamaraceite
1.55
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.94

Tamaraceite creates 65% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 65 away

creates per match

Tamaraceite
1.78
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.88

allows per match

Tamaraceite
0.99
Unión Sur Yaiza
1.32

finishing

Tamaraceite+0.00on par
Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamaraceite ↓

Unión Sur Yaiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tamaraceite or draw
77%
Tamaraceite or Unión Sur Yaiza
74%
Draw or Unión Sur Yaiza
48%

Winning margin

Tamaraceite wins by 2+
27%
Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tamaraceite 1+ goals
79%
Tamaraceite 2+ goals
46%
Tamaraceite 3+ goals
20%
Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals
61%
Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals
24%
Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tamaraceite (draw refunded)
69%
Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamaraceite at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 83 matches

Unión Sur Yaiza away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamaraceite attack 1.78 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.55

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 0.88 + Tamaraceite defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tamaraceite scores more
52%
level
26%
Unión Sur Yaiza scores more
23%

Tamaraceite at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tamaraceite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Tamaraceite 6–0 Unión Sur Yaiza

Tamaraceite beat Unión Sur Yaiza 6-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.