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Tamaraceite vs Telde — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tamaraceite
Tamaraceite
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Telde
Telde
11/14/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 11Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tamaraceite67%
×Draw20%
Telde13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamaraceite
2.01
Telde
0.73

Tamaraceite creates 175% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tamaraceite
1.78
Telde
0.47

allows per match

Tamaraceite
0.99
Telde
2.24

finishing

Tamaraceite+0.00on par
Telde+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamaraceite ↓

Telde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tamaraceite or draw
87%
Tamaraceite or Telde
80%
Draw or Telde
33%

Winning margin

Tamaraceite wins by 2+
42%
Telde wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tamaraceite 1+ goals
87%
Tamaraceite 2+ goals
59%
Tamaraceite 3+ goals
32%
Telde 1+ goals
52%
Telde 2+ goals
17%
Telde 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tamaraceite (draw refunded)
84%
Telde (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamaraceite at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 83 matches

Telde away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamaraceite attack 1.78 + Telde defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.01

Telde attack 0.47 + Tamaraceite defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Tamaraceite scores more
67%
level
20%
Telde scores more
13%

Tamaraceite at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Tamaraceite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tamaraceite vs Telde

Tamaraceite beat Telde 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 14, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.