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Tamaraceite vs Santa Úrsula — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tamaraceite
Tamaraceite
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
2/4/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 19Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Tamaraceite54%
×Draw25%
Santa Úrsula22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamaraceite
1.65
Santa Úrsula
0.95

Tamaraceite creates 74% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 92 away

creates per match

Tamaraceite
1.78
Santa Úrsula
0.90

allows per match

Tamaraceite
0.99
Santa Úrsula
1.52

finishing

Tamaraceite+0.00on par
Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamaraceite ↓

Santa Úrsula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tamaraceite or draw
78%
Tamaraceite or Santa Úrsula
75%
Draw or Santa Úrsula
46%

Winning margin

Tamaraceite wins by 2+
29%
Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tamaraceite 1+ goals
81%
Tamaraceite 2+ goals
49%
Tamaraceite 3+ goals
23%
Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
61%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
25%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tamaraceite (draw refunded)
71%
Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamaraceite at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 83 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamaraceite attack 1.78 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.65

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Tamaraceite defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tamaraceite scores more
54%
level
25%
Santa Úrsula scores more
22%

Tamaraceite at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tamaraceite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Tamaraceite 1–0 Santa Úrsula

Tamaraceite beat Santa Úrsula 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 4, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.