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Tamaraceite vs San Miguel — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tamaraceite
Tamaraceite
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Miguel
San Miguel
1/24/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 19Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tamaraceite50%
×Draw25%
San Miguel25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamaraceite
1.59
San Miguel
1.06

Tamaraceite creates 50% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tamaraceite
1.78
San Miguel
1.12

allows per match

Tamaraceite
0.99
San Miguel
1.41

finishing

Tamaraceite+0.00on par
San Miguel+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamaraceite ↓

San Miguel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tamaraceite or draw
75%
Tamaraceite or San Miguel
75%
Draw or San Miguel
50%

Winning margin

Tamaraceite wins by 2+
26%
San Miguel wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tamaraceite 1+ goals
80%
Tamaraceite 2+ goals
47%
Tamaraceite 3+ goals
21%
San Miguel 1+ goals
65%
San Miguel 2+ goals
29%
San Miguel 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tamaraceite (draw refunded)
66%
San Miguel (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamaraceite at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 83 matches

San Miguel away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamaraceite attack 1.78 + San Miguel defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.59

San Miguel attack 1.12 + Tamaraceite defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tamaraceite scores more
50%
level
25%
San Miguel scores more
25%

Tamaraceite at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tamaraceite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Tamaraceite 1–0 San Miguel

Tamaraceite beat San Miguel 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 24, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.