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Tamaraceite vs San Miguel — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tamaraceite
Tamaraceite
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Miguel
San Miguel
1/18/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 18Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tamaraceite60%
×Draw23%
San Miguel17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamaraceite
1.75
San Miguel
0.79

Tamaraceite creates 122% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tamaraceite
1.78
San Miguel
0.59

allows per match

Tamaraceite
0.99
San Miguel
1.71

finishing

Tamaraceite+0.00on par
San Miguel+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamaraceite ↓

San Miguel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tamaraceite or draw
83%
Tamaraceite or San Miguel
77%
Draw or San Miguel
40%

Winning margin

Tamaraceite wins by 2+
34%
San Miguel wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tamaraceite 1+ goals
83%
Tamaraceite 2+ goals
52%
Tamaraceite 3+ goals
25%
San Miguel 1+ goals
55%
San Miguel 2+ goals
19%
San Miguel 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tamaraceite (draw refunded)
78%
San Miguel (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamaraceite at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 83 matches

San Miguel away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamaraceite attack 1.78 + San Miguel defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

San Miguel attack 0.59 + Tamaraceite defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tamaraceite scores more
60%
level
23%
San Miguel scores more
17%

Tamaraceite at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tamaraceite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Tamaraceite 2–0 San Miguel

Tamaraceite beat San Miguel 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.