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Tamaraceite vs Real Unión de Tenerife — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tamaraceite
Tamaraceite
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Real Unión de Tenerife
Real Unión de Tenerife
M. Viera 89'
S. Sanchez 45'
I. Betancor 6'
R. Sanchez 90'
1/3/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 16Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tamaraceite53%
×Draw27%
Real Unión de Tenerife20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamaraceite
1.45
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.79

Tamaraceite creates 84% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tamaraceite
1.78
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.59

allows per match

Tamaraceite
0.99
Real Unión de Tenerife
1.12

finishing

Tamaraceite+0.00on par
Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamaraceite ↓

Real Unión de Tenerife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tamaraceite or draw
80%
Tamaraceite or Real Unión de Tenerife
73%
Draw or Real Unión de Tenerife
47%

Winning margin

Tamaraceite wins by 2+
27%
Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tamaraceite 1+ goals
77%
Tamaraceite 2+ goals
42%
Tamaraceite 3+ goals
18%
Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals
55%
Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals
19%
Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tamaraceite (draw refunded)
72%
Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamaraceite at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 83 matches

Real Unión de Tenerife away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamaraceite attack 1.78 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.45

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 0.59 + Tamaraceite defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tamaraceite scores more
53%
level
27%
Real Unión de Tenerife scores more
20%

Tamaraceite at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tamaraceite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
I. Betancor
45'
S. Sanchez
89'
M. Viera
90'
R. Sanchez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Tamaraceite 3–1 Real Unión de Tenerife

Tamaraceite beat Real Unión de Tenerife 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 3, 2026.

Goals: I. Betancor (6'), S. Sanchez (45'), M. Viera (89'), R. Sanchez (90').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.