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Tamaraceite vs Los Llanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tamaraceite
Tamaraceite
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Los Llanos
Los Llanos
5/4/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 33Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tamaraceite64%
×Draw22%
Los Llanos14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamaraceite
1.80
Los Llanos
0.70

Tamaraceite creates 157% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tamaraceite
1.78
Los Llanos
0.41

allows per match

Tamaraceite
0.99
Los Llanos
1.82

finishing

Tamaraceite+0.00on par
Los Llanos+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamaraceite ↓

Los Llanos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tamaraceite or draw
86%
Tamaraceite or Los Llanos
78%
Draw or Los Llanos
36%

Winning margin

Tamaraceite wins by 2+
37%
Los Llanos wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tamaraceite 1+ goals
83%
Tamaraceite 2+ goals
54%
Tamaraceite 3+ goals
27%
Los Llanos 1+ goals
50%
Los Llanos 2+ goals
16%
Los Llanos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tamaraceite (draw refunded)
82%
Los Llanos (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamaraceite at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 83 matches

Los Llanos away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamaraceite attack 1.78 + Los Llanos defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.80

Los Llanos attack 0.41 + Tamaraceite defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Tamaraceite scores more
64%
level
22%
Los Llanos scores more
14%

Tamaraceite at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Tamaraceite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tamaraceite 2 – 1 Los Llanos

Tamaraceite beat Los Llanos 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.