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Tamaraceite vs Gran Tarajal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tamaraceite
Tamaraceite
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gran Tarajal
Gran Tarajal
2/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 24Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Tamaraceite56%
×Draw23%
Gran Tarajal21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamaraceite
1.77
Gran Tarajal
0.98

Tamaraceite creates 81% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 75 away

creates per match

Tamaraceite
1.78
Gran Tarajal
0.97

allows per match

Tamaraceite
0.99
Gran Tarajal
1.75

finishing

Tamaraceite+0.00on par
Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamaraceite ↓

Gran Tarajal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tamaraceite or draw
79%
Tamaraceite or Gran Tarajal
77%
Draw or Gran Tarajal
44%

Winning margin

Tamaraceite wins by 2+
31%
Gran Tarajal wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tamaraceite 1+ goals
83%
Tamaraceite 2+ goals
53%
Tamaraceite 3+ goals
26%
Gran Tarajal 1+ goals
62%
Gran Tarajal 2+ goals
26%
Gran Tarajal 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tamaraceite (draw refunded)
73%
Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamaraceite at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 83 matches

Gran Tarajal away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamaraceite attack 1.78 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

Gran Tarajal attack 0.97 + Tamaraceite defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tamaraceite scores more
56%
level
23%
Gran Tarajal scores more
21%

Tamaraceite at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tamaraceite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Tamaraceite 1–0 Gran Tarajal

Tamaraceite beat Gran Tarajal 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.