Tamaraceite 2–0 Atlético Victoria: Result & Stats

Tamaraceite

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Victoria

12/2/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 13Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tamaraceite61%

×Draw22%

Atlético Victoria17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TamaraceiteExpected goals in this matchAtlético Victoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.86

Tamaraceite

1.88

Atlético Victoria

0.86

Tamaraceite creates 119% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 31 away

1.78

creates per match

0.74

0.99

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Tamaraceite

1.78

Atlético Victoria

0.74

allows per match

Tamaraceite

0.99

Atlético Victoria

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tamaraceite+0.00on par

Atlético Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamaraceite ↓

Atlético Victoria →

0–06%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tamaraceite or draw

83%

Tamaraceite or Atlético Victoria

78%

Draw or Atlético Victoria

39%

Winning margin

Tamaraceite wins by 2+

36%

Atlético Victoria wins by 2+

Team goals

Tamaraceite 1+ goals

85%

Tamaraceite 2+ goals

56%

Tamaraceite 3+ goals

29%

Atlético Victoria 1+ goals

58%

Atlético Victoria 2+ goals

21%

Atlético Victoria 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tamaraceite (draw refunded)

79%

Atlético Victoria (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tamaraceite at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 83 matches

Atlético Victoria away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tamaraceite attack 1.78 + Atlético Victoria defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.88

Atlético Victoria attack 0.74 + Tamaraceite defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tamaraceite scores more

61%

level

22%

Atlético Victoria scores more

17%

Tamaraceite at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tamaraceite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Tamaraceite 2–0 Atlético Victoria

Tamaraceite beat Atlético Victoria 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.

Tamaraceite vs Atlético Victoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Tamaraceite 2–0 Atlético Victoria