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Tamale City vs Real Tamale — Premier League 2019

Tamale City
Tamale City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Real Tamale
Real Tamale
10/31/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tamale City63%
×Draw21%
Real Tamale16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamale City
2.02
Real Tamale
0.89

Tamale City creates 127% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

creates per match

Tamale City
1.82
Real Tamale
0.83

allows per match

Tamale City
0.94
Real Tamale
2.21

finishing

Tamale City+0.00on par
Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamale City ↓

Real Tamale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tamale City or draw
84%
Tamale City or Real Tamale
79%
Draw or Real Tamale
37%

Winning margin

Tamale City wins by 2+
39%
Real Tamale wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tamale City 1+ goals
87%
Tamale City 2+ goals
60%
Tamale City 3+ goals
33%
Real Tamale 1+ goals
59%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
22%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tamale City (draw refunded)
80%
Real Tamale (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamale City at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamale City attack 1.82 + Real Tamale defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.02

Real Tamale attack 0.83 + Tamale City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tamale City scores more
63%
level
21%
Real Tamale scores more
16%

Tamale City at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tamale City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tamale City vs Real Tamale

Tamale City and Real Tamale drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 31, 2022.

The match was played at Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium in Tamale.