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Real Tamale vs Tamale City — Premier League 2019

Real Tamale
Real Tamale
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tamale City
Tamale City
3/12/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Tamale52%
×Draw30%
Tamale City18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Tamale
1.27
Tamale City
0.62

Real Tamale creates 105% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

creates per match

Real Tamale
1.30
Tamale City
0.41

allows per match

Real Tamale
0.83
Tamale City
1.24

finishing

Real Tamale+0.00on par
Tamale City+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tamale ↓

Tamale City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Real Tamale or draw
82%
Real Tamale or Tamale City
70%
Draw or Tamale City
48%

Winning margin

Real Tamale wins by 2+
24%
Tamale City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Tamale 1+ goals
72%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
36%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
14%
Tamale City 1+ goals
46%
Tamale City 2+ goals
13%
Tamale City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Real Tamale (draw refunded)
74%
Tamale City (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tamale at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.83 · 53 matches

Tamale City away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tamale attack 1.30 + Tamale City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tamale City attack 0.41 + Real Tamale defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Tamale scores more
52%
level
30%
Tamale City scores more
18%

Real Tamale at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Tamale vs Tamale City

Real Tamale and Tamale City drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium in Tamale.