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Tamale City vs Medeama — Premier League 2019

Tamale City
Tamale City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Medeama
Medeama
2/12/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tamale City51%
×Draw26%
Medeama23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamale City
1.50
Medeama
0.90

Tamale City creates 67% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 112 away

creates per match

Tamale City
1.82
Medeama
0.85

allows per match

Tamale City
0.94
Medeama
1.19

finishing

Tamale City+0.00on par
Medeama+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamale City ↓

Medeama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tamale City or draw
77%
Tamale City or Medeama
74%
Draw or Medeama
49%

Winning margin

Tamale City wins by 2+
26%
Medeama wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tamale City 1+ goals
78%
Tamale City 2+ goals
44%
Tamale City 3+ goals
19%
Medeama 1+ goals
59%
Medeama 2+ goals
23%
Medeama 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tamale City (draw refunded)
69%
Medeama (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamale City at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Medeama away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.19 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamale City attack 1.82 + Medeama defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Medeama attack 0.85 + Tamale City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tamale City scores more
51%
level
26%
Medeama scores more
23%

Tamale City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tamale City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
D. Fordjour← D. Fordjour
70'
Anoba← Anoba
70'
Boakye← Boakye

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tamale City 0–0 Medeama

Tamale City and Medeama drew 0-0 in Premier League on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium in Tamale.