Tamale City 0–1 Legon Cities: Result & Stats

Tamale City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Legon Cities

9/18/2022

Premier League · Round 2Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tamale City57%

×Draw25%

Legon Cities18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tamale CityExpected goals in this matchLegon Cities

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.76

Tamale City

1.60

Legon Cities

0.76

Tamale City creates 111% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 93 away

1.82

creates per match

0.59

0.94

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Tamale City

1.82

Legon Cities

0.59

allows per match

Tamale City

0.94

Legon Cities

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tamale City+0.00on par

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamale City ↓

Legon Cities →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tamale City or draw

82%

Tamale City or Legon Cities

75%

Draw or Legon Cities

43%

Winning margin

Tamale City wins by 2+

31%

Legon Cities wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Tamale City 1+ goals

80%

Tamale City 2+ goals

47%

Tamale City 3+ goals

22%

Legon Cities 1+ goals

53%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

18%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tamale City (draw refunded)

76%

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamale City at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamale City attack 1.82 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.60

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Tamale City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tamale City scores more

57%

level

25%

Legon Cities scores more

18%

Tamale City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tamale City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff