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Tamale City vs King Faisal — Premier League 2019

Tamale City
Tamale City
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
King Faisal
King Faisal
G. Dzakpasu 54'
S. Eduku 32', 20'
S. O. Akoto 14'
5/6/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tamale City59%
×Draw23%
King Faisal17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamale City
1.75
King Faisal
0.82

Tamale City creates 113% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 59 away

creates per match

Tamale City
1.82
King Faisal
0.71

allows per match

Tamale City
0.94
King Faisal
1.68

finishing

Tamale City+0.00on par
King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamale City ↓

King Faisal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tamale City or draw
83%
Tamale City or King Faisal
77%
Draw or King Faisal
41%

Winning margin

Tamale City wins by 2+
34%
King Faisal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tamale City 1+ goals
83%
Tamale City 2+ goals
52%
Tamale City 3+ goals
25%
King Faisal 1+ goals
56%
King Faisal 2+ goals
20%
King Faisal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tamale City (draw refunded)
77%
King Faisal (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamale City at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.68 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamale City attack 1.82 + King Faisal defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.75

King Faisal attack 0.71 + Tamale City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tamale City scores more
59%
level
23%
King Faisal scores more
17%

Tamale City at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tamale City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
A. Latif
14'
S. O. Akoto
19'
B. Bature
20'
S. Eduku
32'
S. Eduku
54'
G. Dzakpasu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tamale City vs King Faisal

Tamale City beat King Faisal 4-0 in Premier League on May 6, 2023.

Goals: S. O. Akoto (14'), S. Eduku (20', 32'), G. Dzakpasu (54').

The match was played at Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium in Tamale.