Tamale City 4–1 Hearts of Oak: Result & Stats

Tamale City

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Hearts of Oak

I. Mensah 90+3'

M. Yahaya 56'

S. Eduku 35' (pen), 17'

V. Aidoo 79'

4/26/2023

Premier League · Round 28Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tamale City49%

×Draw28%

Hearts of Oak23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tamale CityExpected goals in this matchHearts of Oak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.83

Tamale City

1.34

Hearts of Oak

0.83

Tamale City creates 61% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 108 away

1.82

creates per match

0.72

0.94

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Tamale City

1.82

Hearts of Oak

0.72

allows per match

Tamale City

0.94

Hearts of Oak

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tamale City+0.00on par

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamale City ↓

Hearts of Oak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tamale City or draw

77%

Tamale City or Hearts of Oak

72%

Draw or Hearts of Oak

51%

Winning margin

Tamale City wins by 2+

23%

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tamale City 1+ goals

74%

Tamale City 2+ goals

39%

Tamale City 3+ goals

15%

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals

56%

Hearts of Oak 2+ goals

20%

Hearts of Oak 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tamale City (draw refunded)

68%

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamale City at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamale City attack 1.82 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.34

Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + Tamale City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tamale City scores more

49%

level

28%

Hearts of Oak scores more

23%

Tamale City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tamale City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

S. Eduku

31'

E. Esso

35'

S. EdukuPenalty

43'

K. Anane

56'

M. Yahaya

75'

G. Asante← G. Asante

75'

S. Suraj← V. Aidoo

79'

V. Aidoo

90+3'

I. Mensah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff