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Tamale City vs Debibi United — Division One League 2025

Tamale City
Tamale City
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Debibi United
Debibi Unitedadvanced
5/13/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Final

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tamale City39%
×Draw28%
Debibi United33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamale City
1.27
Debibi United
1.14

Tamale City creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tamale City
1.60
Debibi United
1.47

allows per match

Tamale City
0.80
Debibi United
0.93

finishing

Tamale City+0.00on par
Debibi United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamale City ↓

Debibi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tamale City or draw
67%
Tamale City or Debibi United
72%
Draw or Debibi United
61%

Winning margin

Tamale City wins by 2+
17%
Debibi United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tamale City 1+ goals
72%
Tamale City 2+ goals
36%
Tamale City 3+ goals
14%
Debibi United 1+ goals
68%
Debibi United 2+ goals
32%
Debibi United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tamale City (draw refunded)
54%
Debibi United (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamale City at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Debibi United away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamale City attack 1.60 + Debibi United defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.27

Debibi United attack 1.47 + Tamale City defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tamale City scores more
39%
level
28%
Debibi United scores more
33%

Tamale City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tamale City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Tamale City 1–3 Debibi United

Debibi United beat Tamale City 3-1 in Division One League on May 13, 2026.