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Tamale City vs Bechem United — Premier League 2019

Tamale City
Tamale City
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bechem United
Bechem United
G. Abban 83'
C. Amoah Boateng 66' (pen)
M. Yahaya 53'
H. Konkoni 20', 14'
4/15/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tamale City56%
×Draw24%
Bechem United19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamale City
1.69
Bechem United
0.88

Tamale City creates 92% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Tamale City
1.82
Bechem United
0.82

allows per match

Tamale City
0.94
Bechem United
1.56

finishing

Tamale City+0.00on par
Bechem United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamale City ↓

Bechem United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tamale City or draw
81%
Tamale City or Bechem United
76%
Draw or Bechem United
44%

Winning margin

Tamale City wins by 2+
31%
Bechem United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tamale City 1+ goals
82%
Tamale City 2+ goals
50%
Tamale City 3+ goals
24%
Bechem United 1+ goals
59%
Bechem United 2+ goals
22%
Bechem United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tamale City (draw refunded)
74%
Bechem United (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamale City at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Bechem United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.56 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamale City attack 1.82 + Bechem United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.69

Bechem United attack 0.82 + Tamale City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tamale City scores more
56%
level
24%
Bechem United scores more
19%

Tamale City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tamale City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
H. Konkoni
20'
H. Konkoni
53'
M. Yahaya
66'
C. Amoah BoatengPenalty
83'
G. Abban

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tamale City 3–2 Bechem United

Tamale City beat Bechem United 3-2 in Premier League on April 15, 2023.

Goals: H. Konkoni (14', 20'), M. Yahaya (53'), C. Amoah Boateng (66' pen), G. Abban (83').

The match was played at Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium in Tamale.