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Tamai vs Villafranca — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Tamai
Tamai
FT
1 – 1
Villafranca
Villafranca
11/3/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 12Stadio Comunale di Tamai (Tamai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Tamai37%
×Draw26%
Villafranca37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamai
1.35
Villafranca
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 30 away

creates per match

Tamai
1.07
Villafranca
1.07

allows per match

Tamai
1.64
Villafranca
1.63

finishing

Tamai+0.00on par
Villafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamai ↓

Villafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tamai or draw
63%
Tamai or Villafranca
74%
Draw or Villafranca
63%

Winning margin

Tamai wins by 2+
17%
Villafranca wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tamai 1+ goals
74%
Tamai 2+ goals
39%
Tamai 3+ goals
15%
Villafranca 1+ goals
74%
Villafranca 2+ goals
39%
Villafranca 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tamai (draw refunded)
50%
Villafranca (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamai at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Villafranca away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamai attack 1.07 + Villafranca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

Villafranca attack 1.07 + Tamai defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tamai scores more
37%
level
26%
Villafranca scores more
37%

Tamai at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tamai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tamai vs Villafranca

Tamai and Villafranca drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Tamai (Tamai).