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Tamai vs Mestre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Tamai
Tamai
PST
13:30
Mestre
Mestre
3/25/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 30Stadio Comunale di Tamai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Tamai32%
×Draw27%
Mestre40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamai
1.13
Mestre
1.29

Mestre creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 101 away

creates per match

Tamai
1.07
Mestre
0.94

allows per match

Tamai
1.64
Mestre
1.19

finishing

Tamai+0.00on par
Mestre+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamai ↓

Mestre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tamai or draw
60%
Tamai or Mestre
73%
Draw or Mestre
68%

Winning margin

Tamai wins by 2+
13%
Mestre wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tamai 1+ goals
68%
Tamai 2+ goals
31%
Tamai 3+ goals
11%
Mestre 1+ goals
72%
Mestre 2+ goals
37%
Mestre 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tamai (draw refunded)
45%
Mestre (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamai at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Mestre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamai attack 1.07 + Mestre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Mestre attack 0.94 + Tamai defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tamai scores more
32%
level
27%
Mestre scores more
40%

Mestre at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mestre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tamai host Mestre

March 25, 2020: Tamai take on Mestre in Serie D - Girone C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tamai host Mestre at Stadio Comunale di Tamai.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.