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Mestre vs Tamai — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Mestre
Mestre
FT
1 – 0
Tamai
Tamai
10/30/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 11Stadio Francesco Baracca (Mestre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mestre55%
×Draw26%
Tamai19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mestre
1.52
Tamai
0.77

Mestre creates 97% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 13 away

creates per match

Mestre
1.34
Tamai
0.54

allows per match

Mestre
0.99
Tamai
1.69

finishing

Mestre+0.00on par
Tamai+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mestre ↓

Tamai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mestre or draw
81%
Mestre or Tamai
74%
Draw or Tamai
45%

Winning margin

Mestre wins by 2+
29%
Tamai wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mestre 1+ goals
78%
Mestre 2+ goals
45%
Mestre 3+ goals
20%
Tamai 1+ goals
54%
Tamai 2+ goals
18%
Tamai 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mestre (draw refunded)
74%
Tamai (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mestre at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Tamai away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mestre attack 1.34 + Tamai defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tamai attack 0.54 + Mestre defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mestre scores more
55%
level
26%
Tamai scores more
19%

Mestre at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mestre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mestre 1 – 0 Tamai

Mestre beat Tamai 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Francesco Baracca (Mestre).