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Tamai vs Cartigliano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Tamai
Tamai
FT
2 – 2
Cartigliano
Cartigliano
10/13/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 8Stadio Comunale di Tamai (Tamai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Tamai30%
×Draw25%
Cartigliano44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamai
1.22
Cartigliano
1.53

Cartigliano creates 25% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 49 away

creates per match

Tamai
1.07
Cartigliano
1.43

allows per match

Tamai
1.64
Cartigliano
1.37

finishing

Tamai+0.00on par
Cartigliano+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamai ↓

Cartigliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tamai or draw
56%
Tamai or Cartigliano
75%
Draw or Cartigliano
70%

Winning margin

Tamai wins by 2+
13%
Cartigliano wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Tamai 1+ goals
70%
Tamai 2+ goals
34%
Tamai 3+ goals
12%
Cartigliano 1+ goals
78%
Cartigliano 2+ goals
45%
Cartigliano 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tamai (draw refunded)
41%
Cartigliano (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamai at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Cartigliano away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamai attack 1.07 + Cartigliano defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Tamai defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tamai scores more
30%
level
25%
Cartigliano scores more
44%

Cartigliano at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cartigliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Tamai 2–2 Cartigliano

Tamai and Cartigliano drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone C on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Tamai (Tamai).