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Tállya vs Tiszakecske FC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Tállya
Tállya
FT
0 – 1
Tiszakecske FC
Tiszakecske FC
11/29/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 20Tállyai Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tállya18%
×Draw21%
Tiszakecske FC61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tállya
0.97
Tiszakecske FC
2.00

Tiszakecske FC creates 106% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tállya
1.04
Tiszakecske FC
2.26

allows per match

Tállya
1.74
Tiszakecske FC
0.89

finishing

Tállya+0.00on par
Tiszakecske FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tállya ↓

Tiszakecske FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tállya or draw
39%
Tállya or Tiszakecske FC
79%
Draw or Tiszakecske FC
82%

Winning margin

Tállya wins by 2+
6%
Tiszakecske FC wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Tállya 1+ goals
62%
Tállya 2+ goals
25%
Tállya 3+ goals
7%
Tiszakecske FC 1+ goals
86%
Tiszakecske FC 2+ goals
59%
Tiszakecske FC 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Tállya (draw refunded)
22%
Tiszakecske FC (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tállya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

Tiszakecske FC away — creates 2.26, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tállya attack 1.04 + Tiszakecske FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Tiszakecske FC attack 2.26 + Tállya defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tállya scores more
18%
level
21%
Tiszakecske FC scores more
61%

Tiszakecske FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tiszakecske FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Tállya 0–1 Tiszakecske FC

Tiszakecske FC beat Tállya 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Tállyai Sporttelep in Tállya.