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Tállya vs Salgótarjáni BTC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Tállya
Tállya
FT
2 – 1
Salgótarjáni BTC
Salgótarjáni BTC
10/10/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 11Tállyai Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tállya41%
×Draw25%
Salgótarjáni BTC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tállya
1.48
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.30

Tállya creates 14% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 49 away

creates per match

Tállya
1.04
Salgótarjáni BTC
0.86

allows per match

Tállya
1.74
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.92

finishing

Tállya+0.00on par
Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tállya ↓

Salgótarjáni BTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tállya or draw
67%
Tállya or Salgótarjáni BTC
75%
Draw or Salgótarjáni BTC
59%

Winning margin

Tállya wins by 2+
20%
Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tállya 1+ goals
77%
Tállya 2+ goals
43%
Tállya 3+ goals
19%
Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals
73%
Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals
37%
Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tállya (draw refunded)
55%
Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tállya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

Salgótarjáni BTC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tállya attack 1.04 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.48

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 0.86 + Tállya defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tállya scores more
41%
level
25%
Salgótarjáni BTC scores more
33%

Tállya at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tállya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tállya vs Salgótarjáni BTC

Tállya beat Salgótarjáni BTC 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Tállyai Sporttelep in Tállya.