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Tállya vs Putnok VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Tállya
Tállya
FT
1 – 2
Putnok VSE
Putnok VSE
10/31/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 15Tállyai Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tállya29%
×Draw24%
Putnok VSE47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tállya
1.29
Putnok VSE
1.69

Putnok VSE creates 31% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 112 away

creates per match

Tállya
1.04
Putnok VSE
1.63

allows per match

Tállya
1.74
Putnok VSE
1.54

finishing

Tállya+0.00on par
Putnok VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tállya ↓

Putnok VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tállya or draw
53%
Tállya or Putnok VSE
76%
Draw or Putnok VSE
71%

Winning margin

Tállya wins by 2+
12%
Putnok VSE wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Tállya 1+ goals
72%
Tállya 2+ goals
37%
Tállya 3+ goals
14%
Putnok VSE 1+ goals
82%
Putnok VSE 2+ goals
50%
Putnok VSE 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Tállya (draw refunded)
39%
Putnok VSE (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tállya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

Putnok VSE away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tállya attack 1.04 + Putnok VSE defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29

Putnok VSE attack 1.63 + Tállya defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tállya scores more
29%
level
24%
Putnok VSE scores more
47%

Putnok VSE at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Tállya 1–2 Putnok VSE

Putnok VSE beat Tállya 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Tállyai Sporttelep in Tállya.