Tállya 0–6 Hajdúszoboszlói SE: Result & Stats

Tállya

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

J. Mate 90+2', 83'

N. Csiki 89'

P. Berdo 70'

P. Karacs 42'

L. Zsombor 22'

2/20/2022

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 22Tállyai Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tállya30%

×Draw24%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TállyaExpected goals in this matchHajdúszoboszlói SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.64

Tállya

1.29

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

1.64

Hajdúszoboszlói SE creates 27% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 38 away

1.04

creates per match

1.53

1.74

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Tállya

1.04

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

1.53

allows per match

Tállya

1.74

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tállya+0.00on par

Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tállya ↓

Hajdúszoboszlói SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Tállya or draw

54%

Tállya or Hajdúszoboszlói SE

76%

Draw or Hajdúszoboszlói SE

70%

Winning margin

Tállya wins by 2+

13%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Tállya 1+ goals

72%

Tállya 2+ goals

37%

Tállya 3+ goals

14%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals

81%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals

49%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Tállya (draw refunded)

40%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tállya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tállya attack 1.04 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.53 + Tállya defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tállya scores more

30%

level

24%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more

46%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hajdúszoboszlói SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

L. Zsombor

38'

T. Tarr

42'

P. Karacs

70'

P. Berdo

83'

J. Mate

89'

N. Csiki

90+2'

J. Mate

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff