Tállya 0–4 Debrecen II: Result & Stats

Tállya

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Debrecen II

3/20/2022

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 26Tállyai Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tállya32%

×Draw24%

Debrecen II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TállyaExpected goals in this matchDebrecen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.68

Tállya

1.41

Debrecen II

1.68

Debrecen II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 111 away

1.04

creates per match

1.62

1.74

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Tállya

1.04

Debrecen II

1.62

allows per match

Tállya

1.74

Debrecen II

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tállya+0.00on par

Debrecen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tállya ↓

Debrecen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Tállya or draw

56%

Tállya or Debrecen II

76%

Draw or Debrecen II

68%

Winning margin

Tállya wins by 2+

15%

Debrecen II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Tállya 1+ goals

76%

Tállya 2+ goals

41%

Tállya 3+ goals

17%

Debrecen II 1+ goals

81%

Debrecen II 2+ goals

50%

Debrecen II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Tállya (draw refunded)

42%

Debrecen II (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tállya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

Debrecen II away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tállya attack 1.04 + Debrecen II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.41

Debrecen II attack 1.62 + Tállya defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tállya scores more

32%

level

24%

Debrecen II scores more

44%

Debrecen II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Debrecen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff