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Tállya vs Cegledi VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Tállya
Tállya
FT
0 – 2
Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
11/22/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 19Tállyai Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tállya33%
×Draw27%
Cegledi VSE40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tállya
1.21
Cegledi VSE
1.35

Cegledi VSE creates 12% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 27 away

creates per match

Tállya
1.04
Cegledi VSE
0.96

allows per match

Tállya
1.74
Cegledi VSE
1.37

finishing

Tállya+0.00on par
Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tállya ↓

Cegledi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tállya or draw
60%
Tállya or Cegledi VSE
73%
Draw or Cegledi VSE
67%

Winning margin

Tállya wins by 2+
14%
Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tállya 1+ goals
70%
Tállya 2+ goals
34%
Tállya 3+ goals
12%
Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
74%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
39%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tállya (draw refunded)
46%
Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tállya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

Cegledi VSE away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tállya attack 1.04 + Cegledi VSE defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cegledi VSE attack 0.96 + Tállya defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tállya scores more
33%
level
27%
Cegledi VSE scores more
40%

Cegledi VSE at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cegledi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Tállya 0–2 Cegledi VSE

Cegledi VSE beat Tállya 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Tállyai Sporttelep in Tállya.