Tállya 0–1 BKV Előre: Result & Stats

Tállya

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

BKV Előre

M. Egressy 74'

5/22/2022

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 37Tállyai Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tállya33%

×Draw25%

BKV Előre42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TállyaExpected goals in this matchBKV Előre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.53

Tállya

1.31

BKV Előre

1.53

BKV Előre creates 17% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 38 away

1.04

creates per match

1.32

1.74

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Tállya

1.04

BKV Előre

1.32

allows per match

Tállya

1.74

BKV Előre

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tállya+0.00on par

BKV Előre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tállya ↓

BKV Előre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tállya or draw

58%

Tállya or BKV Előre

75%

Draw or BKV Előre

67%

Winning margin

Tállya wins by 2+

14%

BKV Előre wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Tállya 1+ goals

73%

Tállya 2+ goals

38%

Tállya 3+ goals

14%

BKV Előre 1+ goals

78%

BKV Előre 2+ goals

45%

BKV Előre 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Tállya (draw refunded)

43%

BKV Előre (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tállya at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

BKV Előre away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tállya attack 1.04 + BKV Előre defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

BKV Előre attack 1.32 + Tállya defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tállya scores more

33%

level

25%

BKV Előre scores more

42%

BKV Előre at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "BKV Előre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

74'

M. Egressy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff