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Tallinna Wolves vs K-Järve JK Järve — Cup 2020

Tallinna Wolves
Tallinna Wolves
FT
0 – 3
K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
9/3/2020CupCup · 32nd FinalsWismari staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tallinna Wolves18%
×Draw15%
K-Järve JK Järve67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna Wolves
1.96
K-Järve JK Järve
3.65

K-Järve JK Järve creates 86% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tallinna Wolves
1.43
K-Järve JK Järve
1.00

allows per match

Tallinna Wolves
6.29
K-Järve JK Järve
2.50

finishing

Tallinna Wolves+0.00on par
K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Wolves ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Tallinna Wolves or draw
33%
Tallinna Wolves or K-Järve JK Järve
85%
Draw or K-Järve JK Järve
82%

Winning margin

Tallinna Wolves wins by 2+
9%
K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Tallinna Wolves 1+ goals
86%
Tallinna Wolves 2+ goals
58%
Tallinna Wolves 3+ goals
31%
K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
97%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
87%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Wolves (draw refunded)
22%
K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Wolves at home — creates 1.43, concedes 6.29 · 7 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Wolves attack 1.43 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.96

K-Järve JK Järve attack 1.00 + Tallinna Wolves defence 6.29 → ÷2 → 3.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Tallinna Wolves scores more
18%
level
15%
K-Järve JK Järve scores more
67%

K-Järve JK Järve at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "K-Järve JK Järve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Tallinna Wolves 0–3 K-Järve JK Järve

K-Järve JK Järve beat Tallinna Wolves 3-0 in Cup on September 3, 2020.

The match was played at Wismari staadion in Tallinn.