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Tallinna Kalev vs Paide II — Esiliiga A 2026

Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalev
CANC
10:00
Paide II
Paide II
4/3/2021Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 4Kalevi Keskstaadioni kunstmuru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tallinna Kalev53%
×Draw19%
Paide II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna Kalev
2.46
Paide II
1.77

Tallinna Kalev creates 39% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 63 away

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev
2.52
Paide II
1.97

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev
1.57
Paide II
2.40

finishing

Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par
Paide II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev ↓

Paide II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev or draw
72%
Tallinna Kalev or Paide II
81%
Draw or Paide II
47%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+
33%
Paide II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals
91%
Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals
70%
Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals
44%
Paide II 1+ goals
83%
Paide II 2+ goals
53%
Paide II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)
65%
Paide II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Paide II away — creates 1.97, concedes 2.40 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev attack 2.52 + Paide II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.46

Paide II attack 1.97 + Tallinna Kalev defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tallinna Kalev scores more
53%
level
19%
Paide II scores more
28%

Tallinna Kalev at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tallinna Kalev face Paide II (Esiliiga A)

Esiliiga A returns with Tallinna Kalev hosting Paide II. Match starts April 3, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tallinna Kalev host Paide II at Kalevi Keskstaadioni kunstmuru.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.