Paide II 0–4 Tallinna Kalev: Result & Stats

Paide II

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Tallinna Kalev

A. Purje 69', 38'

R. Reimaa 50'

K. Laur 41'

7/1/2021

Esiliiga A · Round 10Paide linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Paide II26%

×Draw19%

Tallinna Kalev55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paide IIExpected goals in this matchTallinna Kalev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.46

Paide II

1.67

Tallinna Kalev

2.46

Tallinna Kalev creates 47% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 21 away

1.86

creates per match

2.29

2.64

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Paide II

1.86

Tallinna Kalev

2.29

allows per match

Paide II

2.64

Tallinna Kalev

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paide II+0.00on par

Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide II ↓

Tallinna Kalev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Paide II or draw

45%

Paide II or Tallinna Kalev

81%

Draw or Tallinna Kalev

74%

Winning margin

Paide II wins by 2+

12%

Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Paide II 1+ goals

81%

Paide II 2+ goals

50%

Paide II 3+ goals

23%

Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals

91%

Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals

70%

Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Paide II (draw refunded)

32%

Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.64 · 64 matches

Tallinna Kalev away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide II attack 1.86 + Tallinna Kalev defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tallinna Kalev attack 2.29 + Paide II defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Paide II scores more

26%

level

19%

Tallinna Kalev scores more

55%

Tallinna Kalev at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

K. Kärp← M. Einer

38'

A. Purje

41'

K. Laur

46'

H. Drame← S. Luts

46'

M. Velijev← M. Vaherna

50'

R. Reimaa

56'

M. Kelement← K. Palumets

62'

M. Petrov← H. Palutaja

69'

A. Purje

79'

M. Riisenberg← R. Sillamaa

87'

S. El Aabchi← A. Purje

Paide

Tallinna

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Kesküla

30'▲K. Kärp←▼M. Einer

46'▲H. Drame←▼S. Luts

56'▲M. Kelement←▼K. Palumets

Paide II substitutes

KärpDrameKelementUusleer

Manager: D. Meijel

46'▲M. Velijev←▼M. Vaherna

62'▲M. Petrov←▼H. Palutaja

79'▲M. Riisenberg←▼R. Sillamaa

87'▲S. El Aabchi←▼A. Purje

Tallinna Kalev substitutes

VelijevPetrovRiisenbergAabchiBergmanRimmelKaupmees

Esiliiga A: Paide II 0–4 Tallinna Kalev

Tallinna Kalev beat Paide II 4-0 in Esiliiga A on July 1, 2021.

Goals: A. Purje (38', 69'), K. Laur (41'), R. Reimaa (50').

The match was played at Paide linnastaadion in Paide.

Paide II vs Tallinna Kalev — Esiliiga A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Esiliiga A: Paide II 0–4 Tallinna Kalev