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Tallinna Kalev vs Kalju Nomme — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalev
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
1/19/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sõle Gümnaasiumi Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tallinna Kalev21%
×Draw19%
Kalju Nomme60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna Kalev
1.40
Kalju Nomme
2.44

Kalju Nomme creates 74% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev
1.67
Kalju Nomme
2.71

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev
2.17
Kalju Nomme
1.14

finishing

Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par
Kalju Nomme+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev ↓

Kalju Nomme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev or draw
40%
Tallinna Kalev or Kalju Nomme
81%
Draw or Kalju Nomme
79%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+
9%
Kalju Nomme wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals
75%
Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals
41%
Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals
17%
Kalju Nomme 1+ goals
91%
Kalju Nomme 2+ goals
70%
Kalju Nomme 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)
26%
Kalju Nomme (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Kalju Nomme away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev attack 1.67 + Kalju Nomme defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kalju Nomme attack 2.71 + Tallinna Kalev defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tallinna Kalev scores more
21%
level
19%
Kalju Nomme scores more
60%

Kalju Nomme at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kalju Nomme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Tallinna Kalev 2–1 Kalju Nomme

Tallinna Kalev beat Kalju Nomme 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 19, 2024.

The match was played at Sõle Gümnaasiumi Staadion in Tallinn.