Kalju Nomme 6–1 Tallinna Kalev: Result & Stats

Kalju Nomme

FT

6 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tallinna Kalev

4/22/2025

Meistriliiga · Round 9Hiiu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Kalju Nomme63%

×Draw20%

Tallinna Kalev17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalju NommeExpected goals in this matchTallinna Kalev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.06

Kalju Nomme

2.19

Tallinna Kalev

1.06

Kalju Nomme creates 107% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 105 away

1.98

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Kalju Nomme

1.98

Tallinna Kalev

1.00

allows per match

Kalju Nomme

1.11

Tallinna Kalev

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalju Nomme+0.00on par

Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalju Nomme ↓

Tallinna Kalev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kalju Nomme or draw

83%

Kalju Nomme or Tallinna Kalev

80%

Draw or Tallinna Kalev

37%

Winning margin

Kalju Nomme wins by 2+

40%

Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kalju Nomme 1+ goals

89%

Kalju Nomme 2+ goals

64%

Kalju Nomme 3+ goals

37%

Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals

65%

Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals

29%

Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kalju Nomme (draw refunded)

78%

Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalju Nomme at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.11 · 129 matches

Tallinna Kalev away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalju Nomme attack 1.98 + Tallinna Kalev defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.19

Tallinna Kalev attack 1.00 + Kalju Nomme defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kalju Nomme scores more

63%

level

20%

Tallinna Kalev scores more

17%

Kalju Nomme at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kalju Nomme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff