Tallinna Kalev 1–1 Kalju Nomme: Result & Stats

Tallinna Kalev

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kalju Nomme

11/5/2023

Meistriliiga · Round 35Kadrioru staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Tallinna Kalev20%

×Draw22%

Kalju Nomme58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tallinna KalevExpected goals in this matchKalju Nomme

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.90

Tallinna Kalev

1.00

Kalju Nomme

1.90

Kalju Nomme creates 90% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 132 away

0.99

creates per match

1.68

2.13

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev

0.99

Kalju Nomme

1.68

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev

2.13

Kalju Nomme

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par

Kalju Nomme+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev ↓

Kalju Nomme →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev or draw

42%

Tallinna Kalev or Kalju Nomme

78%

Draw or Kalju Nomme

80%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+

7%

Kalju Nomme wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals

63%

Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals

26%

Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals

8%

Kalju Nomme 1+ goals

85%

Kalju Nomme 2+ goals

56%

Kalju Nomme 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)

25%

Kalju Nomme (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev at home — creates 0.99, concedes 2.13 · 106 matches

Kalju Nomme away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.02 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev attack 0.99 + Kalju Nomme defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kalju Nomme attack 1.68 + Tallinna Kalev defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tallinna Kalev scores more

20%

level

22%

Kalju Nomme scores more

58%

Kalju Nomme at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kalju Nomme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff