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Tallinna Kalev vs Flora Tallinn — Meistriliiga 2026

Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalev
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
3/15/2025MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Round 3Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Tallinna Kalev14%
×Draw19%
Flora Tallinn68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna Kalev
0.91
Flora Tallinn
2.26

Flora Tallinn creates 148% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 133 away

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev
0.99
Flora Tallinn
2.39

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev
2.13
Flora Tallinn
0.83

finishing

Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par
Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev ↓

Flora Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev or draw
32%
Tallinna Kalev or Flora Tallinn
81%
Draw or Flora Tallinn
86%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+
4%
Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals
60%
Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals
23%
Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals
6%
Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
89%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
66%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)
17%
Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev at home — creates 0.99, concedes 2.13 · 106 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 2.39, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev attack 0.99 + Flora Tallinn defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.91

Flora Tallinn attack 2.39 + Tallinna Kalev defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Tallinna Kalev scores more
14%
level
19%
Flora Tallinn scores more
68%

Flora Tallinn at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Flora Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tallinna Kalev vs Flora Tallinn

Flora Tallinn beat Tallinna Kalev 4-0 in Meistriliiga on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.